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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/06 10:51

   Grain Futures in the Red Midday Thursday

   Corn trade is 8 to 9 cents lower; beans are 14 to 16 cents lower and wheat 
is 14 to 22 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn trade is 8 to 9 cents lower; beans are 14 to 16 cents lower and wheat 
is 14 to 22 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 110 
points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.75 higher. Interest rate products are 
weaker. Energies are firmer with crude up $0.90, and natural gas is up $0.14. 
Livestock trade is mixed with hogs leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold 
unchanged.

CORN:

   Corn trade is 8 to 9 cents lower at midday Thursday with broad grain 
weakness Thursday morning weighing during the day session with harvest 
pressure, lackluster demand and the stronger dollar limiting upside. Short-term 
forecasts have the center of the belt drier with moderating temps to keep 
harvest moving along into mid-month. The export wire will need to show more 
life soon with nothing in recent days with river issues remaining notable for 
shipping with weekly sales disappointing at 227,000 metric tons. Ethanol 
margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand and refinery 
disruptions to keep upside limited for now, but the recent stocks draw down 
will add support. Basis will be watched to see how long we stay on harvest 
footing, and how aggressively the west will bid for corn in the deficit areas 
into early harvest with notable strength already while intramonth spreads 
remain off the highs as shipping issues will limit the export market. On the 
December chart, trade is just below the 20-day at $6.79 with the recent high at 
$6.95 above that with the lower Bollinger Band at $6.65 as further support.

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean trade is 14 to 16 cents lower at midday with trade fading back to 
the lower end of the range again with harvest pressure and demand concerns 
continuing to limit upside. Meal is $4.00 to $5.00 lower, and oil is 0.35 cent 
to 0.55 cent higher. South America has early planting underway with mixed 
overall conditions and better in Brazil to start, while the U.S. dollar and 
shipping issues limit U.S. export interest with weekly export sales uneventful 
with 777,100 metric tons of beans, 19.500 of old crop meal, and 139,900 of new, 
and 900 of old crop soy oil and 100 of new. Basis will continue to shift toward 
harvest footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up 
into the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected 
through midmonth along with intramonth spread weakness adding carry in recent 
days along with areas of significant cash carry in river areas. On the November 
soybean chart, trade has the 20-day at $14.25 as resistance well above the 
market, with the lower Bollinger Band at $13.49 as support, which we have held 
above so far Thursday.

WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 14 to 22 cents lower at midday with spring wheat trade 
holding up the best with spread unwinding between contracts while the stronger 
dollar, and a lack of fresh news encouraging profit taking after trade was 
unable to hold the highs to start the week. The Plains look dry short term, but 
enough recent rains fell in some areas to keep planting moving forward short 
term. MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the range with weaker action so 
far today as well. Weekly export sales were a bit soft at 229,400 metric tons. 
The KC December chart has support at the 20-day at $9.56, and the fresh high at 
$10.09 as resistance which we failed at earlier in the week.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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